Likud leadership fractures over polling data and rival turnout drives

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is divided over its prospects for the election taking place on October 27. One day before the vote, insiders are split between those confident in a win and those anxious about the momentum of the opposition camp. This internal debate centers on conflicting interpretations of recent polling data and the scale of external support reaching Netanyahu’s rivals.

The optimistic faction relies on forecasts from Shlomo Filber, the pollster who manages Likud’s internal surveys. A party source described the internal tension by noting that some members are very sure of themselves while others remain less confident. Regarding Filber’s influence, the source stated, “Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other.”

Party officials are concerned about a coordinated effort by organizations and nonprofits to boost turnout for the anti-Netanyahu camp. Sources described a wide-ranging campaign that includes social media pushes, physical signage, field events, and transportation assistance for Arab voters. The effort also includes campaigns to encourage Israelis abroad to return and cast ballots. One Likud source labeled this activity “the nonprofits affair on steroids,” arguing that these groups provide an extensive support network that operates outside standard party-financing rules.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee for its oversight. Party claims suggest the committee focused heavily on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while paying less attention to the activities of these outside organizations. However, party sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts cited or for the claim that the activity violated the law.

In preparation for Election Day, Likud is organizing a large-scale ground operation to manage voting logistics. Despite restrictions on gathering information from polling stations, the party is focused on preventing right-wing votes from splitting among smaller parties. Negotiations to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, the leader of the People of Israel party, to drop out of the race failed. Talks involved Rabbi Eli Sadan, who later issued a statement backing Winter.

Likud is also courting supporters of other right-wing slates, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. In a related development, Rabbi Abergel’s Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. During those discussions, the parties also explored legislation that would allow the Ahi party to name a deputy minister. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided as they headed to the polls.